Sam Houston St.

Conference:	Slnd
Expected RPI:	206.0
Current RPI:	206
Expected SOS:	271
Current SOS:	271
Current Record:	15-14
Expected Record:	15-14
Current Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Conf Record:	13-7
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	1-7
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	14-3
Current OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC Record:	2-7
Expected OOC RPI:	266
Expected OOC SOS:	132

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
15-14	206.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Sam Houston St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-18	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	A	63-54	L	0%
11-22	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	N	60-71	L	0%
11-23	College of Charleston (57.0)	CAA	N	49-59	L	0%
11-25	Santa Clara (264.0)	WCC	N	59-73	W	100%
12-4	Baylor (68.0)	B12	A	84-56	L	0%
12-13	Mississippi (141.0)	SEC	A	82-69	L	0%
12-15	Little Rock (308.0)	SB	H	57-55	W	100%
12-19	LSU (95.0)	SEC	A	80-58	L	0%
12-22	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	H	64-75	L	0%
12-30	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	A	75-72	L	0%
1-3	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	H	82-76	W	100%
1-6	Incarnate Word (347.0)	Slnd	A	74-85	W	100%
1-10	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	A	50-82	W	100%
1-13	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	H	81-68	W	100%
1-17	Northwestern St. (342.0)	Slnd	H	75-52	W	100%
1-20	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	A	84-77	L	0%
1-24	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	H	75-65	W	100%
1-27	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	A	82-66	L	0%
1-30	McNeese St. (297.0)	Slnd	A	57-67	W	100%
2-3	Abilene Christian (260.0)	Slnd	H	84-77	W	100%
2-7	Texas A&M Corpus Chris (326.0)	Slnd	H	66-64	W	100%
2-10	Lamar (230.0)	Slnd	H	71-69	W	100%
2-14	Nicholls St. (145.0)	Slnd	A	73-72	L	0%
2-17	Houston Baptist (345.0)	Slnd	A	78-86	W	100%
2-21	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	H	57-54	W	100%
2-28	Central Arkansas (223.0)	Slnd	A	88-70	L	0%
3-3	Stephen F. Austin (104.0)	Slnd	H	53-65	L	0%
3-8	New Orleans (239.0)	Slnd	N	85-63	W	100%
3-9	Southeastern Louisiana (150.0)	Slnd	N	89-79	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Sam Houston St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Sam Houston St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Sam Houston St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	26.36	26.36	53.72	53.72	1.96	1.96
Central Arkansas	Slnd	4.46	4.46	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	4.43	4.43	78.57	78.57	2.53	2.53
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	4.40	4.40	33.33	33.33	-1.47	-1.47
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	4.35	4.35	64.29	64.29	1.24	1.24
New Orleans	Slnd	4.33	4.33	46.15	46.15	-0.33	-0.33
Lamar	Slnd	4.32	4.32	53.85	53.85	0.33	0.33
Abilene Christian	Slnd	4.27	4.27	44.00	44.00	-0.51	-0.51
Houston Baptist	Slnd	4.24	4.24	11.54	11.54	-3.26	-3.26
Nicholls St.	Slnd	2.70	2.70	59.26	59.26	0.50	0.50
Incarnate Word	Slnd	2.68	2.68	13.04	13.04	-1.98	-1.98
McNeese St.	Slnd	2.62	2.62	33.33	33.33	-0.87	-0.87
Northwestern St.	Slnd	2.60	2.60	8.33	8.33	-2.17	-2.17
Baylor	B12	1.84	1.84	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Little Rock	SB	1.83	1.83	20.69	20.69	-1.07	-1.07
Mississippi	SEC	1.82	1.82	35.48	35.48	-0.53	-0.53
LSU	SEC	1.81	1.81	53.33	53.33	0.12	0.12
Idaho	BSky	1.78	1.78	67.86	67.86	0.64	0.64
Santa Clara	WCC	1.75	1.75	35.71	35.71	-0.50	-0.50
Central Michigan	MAC	1.72	1.72	51.72	51.72	0.06	0.06
College of Charleston	CAA	1.72	1.72	76.67	76.67	0.92	0.92
Utah Valley	WAC	1.72	1.72	64.29	64.29	0.49	0.49
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.27	0.27	80.65	80.65	0.16	0.16
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.24	0.24	33.33	33.33	-0.08	-0.08
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.22	0.22	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Texas St.	SB	0.22	0.22	41.94	41.94	-0.04	-0.04
Coastal Carolina	SB	0.21	0.21	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.21	0.21	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Mississippi St.	SEC	0.20	0.20	65.62	65.62	0.06	0.06
Houston	Amer	0.16	0.16	78.79	78.79	0.09	0.09
UTSA	CUSA	0.16	0.16	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Georgia	SEC	0.15	0.15	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.14	0.14	37.50	37.50	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri	SEC	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.13	0.13	33.33	33.33	-0.04	-0.04
Lipscomb	ASun	0.13	0.13	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
UMKC	WAC	0.12	0.12	27.59	27.59	-0.06	-0.06
Arkansas St.	SB	0.12	0.12	30.00	30.00	-0.05	-0.05
Bowling Green	MAC	0.12	0.12	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.12	0.12	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Rice	CUSA	0.12	0.12	17.24	17.24	-0.08	-0.08
Florida	SEC	0.12	0.12	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Memphis	Amer	0.12	0.12	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.12	0.12	65.62	65.62	0.04	0.04
Southern Utah	BSky	0.12	0.12	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Texas	B12	0.12	0.12	57.58	57.58	0.02	0.02
Cal Poly	BW	0.12	0.12	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Tulsa	Amer	0.12	0.12	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
Kent St.	MAC	0.11	0.11	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
San Francisco	WCC	0.11	0.11	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.11	0.11	25.00	25.00	-0.05	-0.05
Arkansas	SEC	0.11	0.11	67.65	67.65	0.04	0.04
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
UTEP	CUSA	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
SMU	Amer	0.10	0.10	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.10	0.10	88.24	88.24	0.07	0.07
UC Davis	BW	0.09	0.09	66.67	66.67	0.03	0.03
South Alabama	SB	0.09	0.09	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.09	0.09	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
BYU	WCC	0.09	0.09	70.59	70.59	0.04	0.04
North Dakota	BSky	0.09	0.09	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.09	0.09	13.33	13.33	-0.07	-0.07
Pepperdine	WCC	0.09	0.09	16.13	16.13	-0.06	-0.06
Portland St.	BSky	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Tulane	Amer	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego	WCC	0.09	0.09	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
Valparaiso	MVC	0.09	0.09	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Western Michigan	MAC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Appalachian St.	SB	0.09	0.09	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Notre Dame	ACC	0.09	0.09	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Samford	SC	0.09	0.09	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Kentucky	SEC	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
Georgia St.	SB	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
Drexel	CAA	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Northeastern	CAA	0.08	0.08	68.75	68.75	0.03	0.03
UNC Wilmington	CAA	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
West Virginia	B12	0.08	0.08	70.59	70.59	0.03	0.03
William & Mary	CAA	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.08	0.08	62.50	62.50	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Air Force	MWC	0.06	0.06	34.48	34.48	-0.02	-0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.06	0.06	72.73	72.73	0.03	0.03
Detroit	Horz	0.06	0.06	20.00	20.00	-0.04	-0.04
Duquesne	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.06	0.06	87.88	87.88	0.05	0.05
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Oakland	Horz	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Providence	BE	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.06	0.06	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
St. John's	BE	0.06	0.06	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Utah	P12	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.06	0.06	62.07	62.07	0.01	0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	3.33	3.33	-0.06	-0.06
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Nevada	MWC	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.06	0.06	83.33	83.33	0.04	0.04
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Sacramento St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	16.67	16.67	-0.04	-0.04
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.06	0.06	84.85	84.85	0.04	0.04
Weber St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Montana St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.06	0.06	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Georgia Southern	SB	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Longwood	BSth	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.06	0.06	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Michigan	B10	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Delaware	CAA	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Hofstra	CAA	0.06	0.06	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Kansas	B12	0.06	0.06	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
TCU	B12	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Towson	CAA	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wichita St.	Amer	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Oregon	P12	0.05	0.05	64.71	64.71	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	32.26	32.26	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.03	0.03	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.02	-0.02
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Presbyterian	BSth	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UMBC	AE	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Villanova	BE	0.03	0.03	88.24	88.24	0.02	0.02
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Duke	ACC	0.03	0.03	78.79	78.79	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.03	0.03	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Montana	BSky	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UC Riverside	BW	0.03	0.03	24.14	24.14	-0.02	-0.02
USC	P12	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
High Point	BSth	0.03	0.03	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Marquette	BE	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Rhode Island	A10	0.03	0.03	78.12	78.12	0.02	0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Siena	MAAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
Western Carolina	SC	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.03	0.03	80.00	80.00	0.02	0.02